SAFEX Momentum

The provisional 20 August white front rose R100/t from the 19 August SAFEX mark, bringing local momentum back into focus. The nearest main-month white mark stood at R3818/t and yellow at R3800/t, although the provisional white move remains subject to the official JSE restatement.

Competitive Position

No new serviceable tender emerged for South African origin. Yellow into Korea remains outside competing origin, while white is priced out of both Mexico and Italy, leaving no immediate export pull from those markets.

Realised yellow exports remain active and the intended loading schedule has firmed, but these flows reflect earlier bookings rather than stronger current pricing. The existing Cape import programme likewise reflects prior commitments, with new spot replacement still closed.

Supply Balance

Producer deliveries continue to confirm a heavy maize year, with white carrying the more ample cover. Yellow deliveries remain behind the prior season, but the broader balance is still well supplied.

Neighbour exports and deepsea loadings provide a floor, while soft new tender demand limits the scope for a sustained rally. The market therefore retains a two-sided structure: supported at the margin, but capped by available supply.

Crop Weather

The harvest is well advanced and grain continues to enter storage, with the official crop estimate still open to revision. Conditions have broadly allowed harvest progress, while the El Niño risk into the next planting window remains unresolved.

What we are watching

Attention now turns to whether planned port loadings convert into realised exports and whether the 26 August CEC forecast materially changes the supply balance. A tighter official crop view, firmer export tenders or clearer El Niño-related planting risk would be needed to loosen the present capped-upside judgement.

Global grains

Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports have nearly stopped amid blocked ports, with a consultancy warning that Ukraine’s new-season wheat shipments could fall sharply. Argentina, meanwhile, recorded its strongest July corn exports as a bumper crop outweighed wet-weather harvest delays.

Softs

India authorised tariff-free sugar imports through the end of October as tight stocks and elevated domestic prices prompted the move, with Brazil cited as an available source.

Energy

Saudi Aramco reportedly offered some Asian refiners crude via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, bypassing the halted tanker route through the Strait of Hormuz. The move underscored persistent regional logistics risk as the Iran conflict continued.

Freight

Russian Black Sea route avoidance, the Azov closure and scarce tonnage in the Caspian and Far East have raised grain freight and security costs. Record-low Rhine water has also diverted cargo to land routes, increasing costs and bottlenecks.

Metals

China increased aluminium exports to offset Gulf production losses linked to the Iran war, easing some supply disruption as exchange inventories remained near multi-decade lows. Higher aluminium prices also returned Rusal to first-half profit.